Aftershock

MNQ 08:30 Range Fade V4

MNQLIVE-VALIDATED

MNQ · 08:30 ET — the data-release range fade, Mon/Wed/Fri

31.59×Return on drawdown · best window

Return on drawdown · what a dollar of pain buys 31.59×

RoDD is the metric this catalog is priced on. Profit factor says the engine works; RoDD says what it costs to hold: net profit divided by the worst peak-to-valley drawdown. This system’s window: $53.0k net ÷ $1,700 max drawdown = 31.59×. Slide your drawdown budget — the projection scales with it, and so does the pain.

$1k$2.5kOUR PICK$5k$10k$25k$50k

NOT BUILT FOR THIS SIZE The published max drawdown on this window ($1,700) exceeds a $1k budget — this sizing would not have survived the sample. Some systems are not meant to run this small.

THIN CUSHION The published drawdown is more than half this budget — one bad stretch uses most of your room. A drawdown budget of $2.5k historically returned ~$78,975 over this window (≈$4,936/mo average).

RECOMMENDED SIZE The smallest budget with a full cushion over the published drawdown. A drawdown budget of $5k historically returned ~$157,950 over this window (≈$9,872/mo average).

A drawdown budget of $10k historically returned ~$315,900 over this window (≈$19,744/mo average).

A drawdown budget of $25k historically returned ~$789,750 over this window (≈$49,359/mo average).

A drawdown budget of $50k historically returned ~$1,579,500 over this window (≈$98,719/mo average).

Linear scaling of the published window; not a projection of future results. See the disclaimer below.

Strategy Tester — Aftershock validated run · commissions + slippage modeled

Overview Performance summary Trade log

Equity $61k Drawdown -$2.8k Full record · 335 closed trades · 2025-01-13 → 2026-08-21

Net profit$53.0k

Total trades275

Profitable60.4%

Profit factor2.48

Max drawdown$1.7k

Avg trade$193

Curve: the full record. Figures: best window · 02 May 2025 - 21 Aug 2026.

Performance summary: best window vs full 2024+ window
Metric	Best window	Full record
Net profit	$53.0k	$61.1k
Total closed trades	275	335
Percent profitable	60.4%	59.7%
Profit factor	2.48	2.32
Max drawdown	$1.7k	$2.8k
Avg per trade	$193	$182
Return on max drawdown	31.59	22.10
RoDD per month	2.02	1.15
Months in window	16	19

Every closed trade in the validated record, newest first
#	Day	Side	Held	Net P&L
335	21 Aug 26	long	< 30m	$-483.00
334	19 Aug 26	short	2-4h	$189.50
333	19 Aug 26	short	2-4h	$407.00
332	17 Aug 26	short	1-2h	$258.00
331	14 Aug 26	long	1-2h	$-547.00
330	10 Aug 26	long	1-2h	$31.00
329	10 Aug 26	long	2-4h	$196.00
328	07 Aug 26	long	2-4h	$936.00
327	05 Aug 26	short	2-4h	$962.00
326	03 Aug 26	long	2-4h	$765.00
325	03 Aug 26	long	2-4h	$1,603.00
324	31 Jul 26	short	2-4h	$1,073.00
323	29 Jul 26	short	2-4h	$2,216.00
322	27 Jul 26	short	1-2h	$1,987.00
321	24 Jul 26	long	< 1h	$-663.00
320	22 Jul 26	long	2-4h	$1,279.00
319	20 Jul 26	short	< 30m	$0.50
318	20 Jul 26	short	2-4h	$56.00
317	17 Jul 26	long	< 1h	$-683.00
316	15 Jul 26	long	< 1h	$-678.00
315	13 Jul 26	short	1-2h	$203.00
314	13 Jul 26	short	2-4h	$450.00
313	10 Jul 26	long	2-4h	$370.50
312	10 Jul 26	long	2-4h	$764.00
311	08 Jul 26	short	< 10m	$-17.50
310	08 Jul 26	short	2-4h	$51.00
309	06 Jul 26	long	2-4h	$807.00
308	03 Jul 26	short	2-4h	$9.00
307	01 Jul 26	long	1-2h	$24.00
306	01 Jul 26	long	2-4h	$201.00
305	29 Jun 26	long	< 30m	$-480.50
304	29 Jun 26	long	< 1h	$-835.00
303	26 Jun 26	long	2-4h	$1,094.00
302	24 Jun 26	long	1-2h	$-819.00
301	22 Jun 26	short	2-4h	$1,191.00
300	19 Jun 26	short	2-4h	$-319.00
299	17 Jun 26	long	2-4h	$43.00
298	15 Jun 26	short	2-4h	$-700.00
297	12 Jun 26	long	1-2h	$462.00
296	12 Jun 26	long	2-4h	$895.00
295	10 Jun 26	short	1-2h	$1,510.00
294	08 Jun 26	short	1-2h	$-339.50
293	08 Jun 26	short	1-2h	$-626.00
292	05 Jun 26	long	< 30m	$-456.00
291	03 Jun 26	short	2-4h	$677.00
290	01 Jun 26	long	2-4h	$237.00
289	29 May 26	short	1-2h	$-1.50
288	29 May 26	short	2-4h	$76.00
287	27 May 26	long	< 1h	$-509.00
286	25 May 26	long	2-4h	$-36.00
285	22 May 26	short	< 1h	$-522.00
284	20 May 26	long	2-4h	$352.50
283	20 May 26	long	2-4h	$715.00
282	18 May 26	short	2-4h	$1,742.00
281	15 May 26	short	< 1h	$-254.50
280	15 May 26	short	< 1h	$-483.00
279	13 May 26	long	2-4h	$482.50
278	13 May 26	long	2-4h	$1,048.00
277	11 May 26	short	1-2h	$-288.00
276	11 May 26	short	2-4h	$-503.00
275	08 May 26	short	1-2h	$-446.00
274	06 May 26	long	2-4h	$331.00
273	06 May 26	long	2-4h	$724.00
272	04 May 26	long	< 10m	$-239.50
271	04 May 26	long	2-4h	$-423.00
270	01 May 26	short	1-2h	$-63.00
269	01 May 26	short	1-2h	$-114.00
268	29 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$125.00
267	29 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$324.00
266	27 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$35.00
265	24 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$666.00
264	22 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$323.50
263	22 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$723.00
262	20 Apr 26	short	2-4h	$328.00
261	17 Apr 26	short	< 30m	$-476.00
260	15 Apr 26	short	1-2h	$-516.00
259	13 Apr 26	short	1-2h	$-501.00
258	08 Apr 26	short	2-4h	$559.00
257	06 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$1.50
256	06 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$36.00
255	05 Apr 26	long	< 10m	$-178.00
254	01 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$470.50
253	01 Apr 26	long	2-4h	$1,044.00
252	30 Mar 26	long	< 30m	$-578.00
251	27 Mar 26	long	< 1h	$-549.00
250	25 Mar 26	short	1-2h	$250.00
249	25 Mar 26	short	2-4h	$563.00
248	23 Mar 26	short	2-4h	$340.00
247	23 Mar 26	short	2-4h	$783.00
246	20 Mar 26	short	2-4h	$762.00
245	18 Mar 26	long	< 1h	$27.50
244	18 Mar 26	long	1-2h	$137.00
243	16 Mar 26	long	1-2h	$3.00
242	16 Mar 26	long	2-4h	$107.00
241	13 Mar 26	short	2-4h	$524.50
240	13 Mar 26	short	2-4h	$1,142.00
239	09 Mar 26	long	2-4h	$653.50
238	09 Mar 26	long	2-4h	$1,341.00
237	06 Mar 26	long	2-4h	$311.00
236	06 Mar 26	long	2-4h	$694.00
235	04 Mar 26	short	< 1h	$-264.00
234	04 Mar 26	short	< 1h	$-516.00
233	02 Mar 26	long	2-4h	$1,486.00
232	27 Feb 26	short	2-4h	$-91.50
231	27 Feb 26	short	2-4h	$-106.00
230	25 Feb 26	short	< 1h	$-467.00
229	23 Feb 26	short	2-4h	$414.00
228	23 Feb 26	short	2-4h	$912.00
227	20 Feb 26	short	< 30m	$-494.00
226	18 Feb 26	long	2-4h	$521.00
225	18 Feb 26	long	2-4h	$1,147.00
224	16 Feb 26	long	< 1h	$-550.00
223	13 Feb 26	long	2-4h	$1,197.00
222	11 Feb 26	short	2-4h	$434.00
221	11 Feb 26	short	2-4h	$890.00
220	09 Feb 26	long	2-4h	$616.00
219	09 Feb 26	long	2-4h	$1,326.00
218	06 Feb 26	long	2-4h	$535.00
217	06 Feb 26	long	2-4h	$1,149.00
216	04 Feb 26	long	1-2h	$-535.00
215	02 Feb 26	short	< 1h	$-441.00
214	30 Jan 26	short	2-4h	$361.50
213	30 Jan 26	short	2-4h	$776.00
212	28 Jan 26	long	1-2h	$-189.50
211	28 Jan 26	long	2-4h	$-388.00
210	26 Jan 26	short	1-2h	$-275.00
209	23 Jan 26	long	2-4h	$459.50
208	23 Jan 26	long	2-4h	$977.00
207	21 Jan 26	short	< 30m	$-381.00
206	19 Jan 26	long	2-4h	$468.00
205	16 Jan 26	short	2-4h	$570.00
204	14 Jan 26	long	< 30m	$-318.00
203	12 Jan 26	long	2-4h	$969.00
202	09 Jan 26	long	2-4h	$426.50
201	09 Jan 26	long	2-4h	$904.00
200	07 Jan 26	short	< 1h	$-319.00
199	05 Jan 26	short	< 1h	$-319.00
198	02 Jan 26	long	< 1h	$-135.50
197	02 Jan 26	long	1-2h	$-282.00
196	31 Dec 25	short	2-4h	$428.00
195	29 Dec 25	long	2-4h	$-100.00
194	29 Dec 25	long	2-4h	$-196.00
193	26 Dec 25	long	2-4h	$-82.00
192	26 Dec 25	long	2-4h	$-98.00
191	24 Dec 25	long	2-4h	$309.00
190	22 Dec 25	short	2-4h	$97.00
189	22 Dec 25	short	2-4h	$244.00
188	19 Dec 25	short	< 30m	$-455.00
187	17 Dec 25	short	1-2h	$1,272.00
186	15 Dec 25	short	1-2h	$1,287.00
185	12 Dec 25	short	< 1h	$551.50
184	12 Dec 25	short	1-2h	$1,142.00
183	10 Dec 25	long	< 1h	$-361.00
182	08 Dec 25	short	2-4h	$772.00
181	05 Dec 25	short	< 30m	$-243.50
180	05 Dec 25	short	< 1h	$-423.00
179	03 Dec 25	long	< 10m	$-483.00
178	01 Dec 25	short	1-2h	$-529.00
177	26 Nov 25	long	2-4h	$662.00
176	24 Nov 25	long	2-4h	$1,352.00
175	21 Nov 25	long	< 1h	$-340.00
174	21 Nov 25	long	< 1h	$-627.00
173	19 Nov 25	long	< 30m	$-85.50
172	19 Nov 25	long	2-4h	$-63.00
171	17 Nov 25	long	1-2h	$282.50
170	17 Nov 25	long	2-4h	$639.00
169	14 Nov 25	short	< 30m	$-498.00
168	12 Nov 25	long	< 30m	$-480.00
167	10 Nov 25	long	1-2h	$-41.00
166	10 Nov 25	long	2-4h	$5.00
165	07 Nov 25	short	2-4h	$1,534.00
164	05 Nov 25	long	2-4h	$1,006.00
163	03 Nov 25	short	2-4h	$237.00
162	31 Oct 25	long	< 1h	$-430.00
161	29 Oct 25	short	2-4h	$203.00
160	27 Oct 25	long	2-4h	$342.00
159	22 Oct 25	short	2-4h	$382.50
158	22 Oct 25	short	2-4h	$834.00
157	20 Oct 25	short	1-2h	$-516.00
156	17 Oct 25	long	2-4h	$410.00
155	17 Oct 25	long	2-4h	$879.00
154	15 Oct 25	long	< 1h	$-23.50
153	15 Oct 25	long	2-4h	$-23.00
152	13 Oct 25	long	2-4h	$185.00
151	13 Oct 25	long	2-4h	$420.00
150	10 Oct 25	short	< 1h	$419.00
149	10 Oct 25	short	1-2h	$884.00
148	08 Oct 25	short	< 30m	$-276.00
147	06 Oct 25	long	1-2h	$-164.00
146	06 Oct 25	long	1-2h	$-272.00
145	03 Oct 25	short	2-4h	$14.00
144	03 Oct 25	short	2-4h	$66.00
143	01 Oct 25	long	2-4h	$372.50
142	01 Oct 25	long	2-4h	$749.00
141	29 Sep 25	short	< 30m	$-161.50
140	29 Sep 25	short	1-2h	$-278.00
139	26 Sep 25	long	< 30m	$-285.00
138	24 Sep 25	short	2-4h	$804.00
137	22 Sep 25	short	1-2h	$-184.00
136	19 Sep 25	short	< 1h	$-115.50
135	19 Sep 25	short	2-4h	$-180.00
134	17 Sep 25	short	2-4h	$519.00
133	15 Sep 25	short	< 1h	$-274.00
132	12 Sep 25	long	2-4h	$389.00
131	08 Sep 25	short	< 1h	$-338.00
130	05 Sep 25	short	< 1h	$573.50
129	05 Sep 25	short	1-2h	$1,172.00
128	03 Sep 25	short	2-4h	$60.00
127	03 Sep 25	short	2-4h	$110.00
126	01 Sep 25	long	2-4h	$82.00
125	29 Aug 25	long	< 30m	$-307.00
124	27 Aug 25	long	2-4h	$217.00
123	25 Aug 25	short	1-2h	$-347.00
122	22 Aug 25	long	< 1h	$1,039.00
121	20 Aug 25	long	< 30m	$-293.00
120	18 Aug 25	short	2-4h	$46.00
119	18 Aug 25	short	2-4h	$89.00
118	15 Aug 25	long	< 30m	$-298.00
117	13 Aug 25	short	2-4h	$392.00
116	11 Aug 25	long	1-2h	$137.00
115	11 Aug 25	long	2-4h	$331.00
114	08 Aug 25	short	< 1h	$-356.00
113	06 Aug 25	short	< 1h	$-349.00
112	04 Aug 25	short	< 10m	$-322.00
111	01 Aug 25	long	< 10m	$-281.00
110	30 Jul 25	long	2-4h	$129.00
109	30 Jul 25	long	2-4h	$291.00
108	28 Jul 25	long	1-2h	$-18.50
107	28 Jul 25	long	2-4h	$0.00
106	25 Jul 25	long	2-4h	$346.00
105	23 Jul 25	short	< 30m	$43.50
104	23 Jul 25	short	2-4h	$87.00
103	21 Jul 25	long	2-4h	$489.00
102	18 Jul 25	short	2-4h	$234.00
101	16 Jul 25	long	1-2h	$-258.00
100	14 Jul 25	long	2-4h	$537.00
99	11 Jul 25	long	2-4h	$437.00
98	09 Jul 25	short	< 1h	$-281.00
97	07 Jul 25	long	2-4h	$-36.00
96	04 Jul 25	long	2-4h	$73.00
95	02 Jul 25	short	< 1h	$-311.00
94	30 Jun 25	long	2-4h	$36.00
93	27 Jun 25	long	2-4h	$356.00
92	25 Jun 25	short	2-4h	$256.00
91	23 Jun 25	long	2-4h	$443.00
90	20 Jun 25	short	< 1h	$-341.00
89	18 Jun 25	long	2-4h	$144.50
88	18 Jun 25	long	2-4h	$357.00
87	16 Jun 25	long	2-4h	$644.00
86	13 Jun 25	long	1-2h	$359.00
85	13 Jun 25	long	2-4h	$756.00
84	09 Jun 25	long	2-4h	$125.00
83	06 Jun 25	short	1-2h	$46.00
82	06 Jun 25	short	2-4h	$130.00
81	04 Jun 25	short	2-4h	$-18.50
80	04 Jun 25	short	2-4h	$3.00
79	02 Jun 25	short	1-2h	$-144.50
78	02 Jun 25	short	2-4h	$-210.00
77	30 May 25	long	2-4h	$270.00
76	28 May 25	long	2-4h	$-83.00
75	28 May 25	long	2-4h	$-103.00
74	26 May 25	long	2-4h	$92.00
73	23 May 25	long	2-4h	$751.00
72	21 May 25	long	2-4h	$1,074.00
71	19 May 25	short	< 30m	$-419.00
70	16 May 25	long	2-4h	$12.00
69	16 May 25	long	2-4h	$57.00
68	14 May 25	long	2-4h	$350.00
67	12 May 25	long	< 30m	$-464.00
66	09 May 25	long	1-2h	$-237.00
65	07 May 25	short	2-4h	$200.50
64	07 May 25	short	2-4h	$493.00
63	05 May 25	short	2-4h	$-445.00
62	02 May 25	short	2-4h	$-311.50
61	02 May 25	short	2-4h	$-506.00
60	30 Apr 25	long	2-4h	$901.00
59	28 Apr 25	short	2-4h	$913.00
58	25 Apr 25	long	2-4h	$231.50
57	25 Apr 25	long	2-4h	$599.00
56	23 Apr 25	short	2-4h	$605.00
55	21 Apr 25	long	2-4h	$-860.00
54	16 Apr 25	long	2-4h	$-61.00
53	14 Apr 25	short	2-4h	$695.00
52	14 Apr 25	short	2-4h	$1,615.00
51	11 Apr 25	long	2-4h	$350.00
50	09 Apr 25	short	< 1h	$-909.00
49	07 Apr 25	long	< 30m	$-384.00
48	07 Apr 25	long	< 1h	$-648.00
47	04 Apr 25	long	< 30m	$-291.50
46	04 Apr 25	long	< 30m	$-534.00
45	02 Apr 25	long	2-4h	$1,401.00
44	31 Mar 25	long	< 10m	$-455.00
43	28 Mar 25	long	< 30m	$-422.00
42	26 Mar 25	short	2-4h	$582.00
41	26 Mar 25	short	2-4h	$1,222.00
40	24 Mar 25	short	2-4h	$-342.00
39	21 Mar 25	long	2-4h	$642.00
38	19 Mar 25	short	< 1h	$-517.00
37	14 Mar 25	long	2-4h	$292.50
36	14 Mar 25	long	2-4h	$657.00
35	12 Mar 25	long	1-2h	$686.00
34	10 Mar 25	short	2-4h	$1,292.00
33	07 Mar 25	long	< 1h	$-321.00
32	07 Mar 25	long	1-2h	$-538.00
31	05 Mar 25	long	1-2h	$-306.00
30	05 Mar 25	long	2-4h	$-519.00
29	03 Mar 25	short	2-4h	$683.00
28	28 Feb 25	long	2-4h	$319.00
27	28 Feb 25	long	2-4h	$681.00
26	26 Feb 25	long	< 1h	$-377.00
25	24 Feb 25	short	1-2h	$1,077.00
24	21 Feb 25	long	< 30m	$-313.00
23	19 Feb 25	short	1-2h	$-75.00
22	19 Feb 25	short	2-4h	$-94.00
21	17 Feb 25	short	1-2h	$27.50
20	17 Feb 25	short	2-4h	$113.00
19	14 Feb 25	short	2-4h	$36.00
18	10 Feb 25	long	2-4h	$121.50
17	10 Feb 25	long	2-4h	$296.00
16	07 Feb 25	long	< 10m	$-246.00
15	07 Feb 25	long	< 1h	$-413.00
14	05 Feb 25	short	1-2h	$-261.50
13	05 Feb 25	short	2-4h	$-465.00
12	03 Feb 25	short	< 1h	$-436.00
11	31 Jan 25	short	1-2h	$-436.00
10	29 Jan 25	short	2-4h	$350.00
9	27 Jan 25	long	1-2h	$1,138.00
8	24 Jan 25	short	< 1h	$54.50
7	24 Jan 25	short	2-4h	$183.00
6	22 Jan 25	long	2-4h	$648.00
5	20 Jan 25	short	< 1h	$28.50
4	20 Jan 25	short	2-4h	$138.00
3	17 Jan 25	short	< 30m	$-413.00
2	13 Jan 25	long	2-4h	$30.00
1	13 Jan 25	long	2-4h	$136.00

Newest first · entry and exit prices are withheld by policy.

What separates this strategy

Fades the 08:30 economic-data burst back into the pre-release range - the session's most violent minutes, traded with structure.
Runs Monday/Wednesday/Friday only: the days the release schedule concentrates the edge.

Daily results — last 6 months of the record

March 2026+$7,218

MTWTFSS

121.5k34−780561.0k7892.0k101112131.7k141516110171816419207622122231.1k24258132627−549282930−57831

April 2026+$2,964

MTWTFSS

11.5k2345−17863878559910111213−5011415−5161617−47618192032821221.0k232466625262735282944930

May 2026+$1,588

MTWTFSS

1−177234−662561.1k78−44691011−79112131.5k1415−7381617181.7k19201.1k2122−522232425−362627−5092829743031

June 2026+$1,534

MTWTFSS

12372367745−456678−9669101.5k11121.4k131415−7001617431819−3192021221.2k2324−81925261.1k272829−1.3k30

July 2026+$7,450

MTWTFSS

122523945680778349101.1k1112136531415−6781617−6831819205621221.3k2324−6632526272.0k28292.2k30311.1k

August 2026+$4,318

MTWTFSS

1232.4k4596267936891022711121314−54715161725818195962021−48322232425262728293031

All performance figures are backtested or validation-run results shown with commissions and slippage modeled, on the stated window. Backtested performance is hypothetical, does not represent live trading results, and is not a guarantee or projection of future returns. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Nothing on this site is financial advice. Access provides the strategy tool only; you are responsible for your own trading decisions.

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